A recent study has revealed that the Saskatchewan government’s choice to renovate its coal-fired power plants could potentially amount to a staggering $46.4 billion expenditure over the next two decades. This figure significantly surpasses the estimate found in leaked internal SaskPower documents, which projected costs at $26 billion over a 25-year period.
Brett Dolter, an associate professor at the University of Regina specializing in economics, conducted an analysis to determine the financial implications of Saskatchewan’s strategy to utilize its coal-fired plants as a transition to nuclear power and the implementation of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). Dolter’s research indicates that this plan will not only be more costly but also more environmentally damaging compared to retiring the coal facilities and introducing a mix of natural gas plants and renewable energy systems – the original strategy the province had before reversing course in early 2025.
According to Dolter, embracing an alternative scenario that saves money, reduces emissions, and could potentially save individuals over $800 annually seems to be a more advantageous direction. His analysis drew insights from leaked SaskPower documents disclosed by the Saskatchewan NDP, data submitted to the province’s rate review panel, and a few assumptions due to the absence of the government’s internal analysis.
When factoring in carbon pricing, the cost of persisting with coal-fired power doubles to $30.2 billion over the next 20 years. Dolter emphasized that incorporating carbon pricing significantly alters the financial outlook, making the alternative scenario notably more cost-effective due to the substantial pollution stemming from coal plants.
Although the financial implications of Saskatchewan’s current trajectory are apparent, Dolter refrained from speculating on the rationale behind the government’s decision if it was aware of the costs involved.
When approached for a response to Dolter’s analysis, the provincial government provided a statement emphasizing the importance of reliable and affordable electricity for Saskatchewan’s ongoing development. The government reiterated its commitment to an “all-of-the-above” strategy to meet energy needs, combining the responsible use of current resources with future plans for nuclear energy deployment.
Furthermore, if Saskatchewan proceeds with contravening Canada’s clean electricity regulations, coal-fired power regulations, and carbon pricing as directed by the provincial government, Dolter warned of potential legal and financial risks. He highlighted the possibility of significant financial losses if the province invests in refurbishing coal plants, only to face legal challenges that could ultimately lead to their closure, resulting in wasted resources.